TX: Perry up 14%, Congressional Dems struggle toward reelection, according to poll
New polls continue to put Texas Gov. Rick Perry on a clear path toward reelection in three weeks. In a new survey released by ccAdvertising on Tuesday, Perry leads Democrat Bill White 49.82-35.57 percent, with 14.61 percent still undecided.
The poll had 1,510 respondents though only likely voters were included in final results. It was conducted on Oct. 11 and 12 and had a +/- 3 percent margin of error. That gap tracks closely to other recent results that have shown White losing ground to the incumbent.
The more surprising results from ccAdvertising came in their look at incumbent Congressional Democrats. The 17th and 23rd Districts have been watched closely as possible Republican pick-up opportunities. But if ccAdvertising’s numbers are accurate, Democrats may also be in danger of losing the 27th District. Incumbent Rep. Solomon Ortiz trails Republican candidate Blake Farenthold 44.98-35.09 percent, according to the survey results. The seat has been viewed as largely safe for Ortiz.
In the 17th, the poll has Republican Bill Flores leads Rep. Chet Edwards 47.42-36.36 percent. The Republican challenger leads by a similar margin in the 23rd, with Rep. Ciro Rodriguez falling to Francisco Canseco 42.71-31.78 percent, according to the survey
All four races were polled separately on the same day through voice interactive automated calls to landline and mobile phones, with each result reflecting the views of likely voters.
The list of ccAdvertising’s clients include Texas Republicans such as Michael Conaway and Kay Granger. But the poll released Tuesday was not sponsored or conducted on behalf of any other organization. Democrats have accused the group of conducting push polls in the past, but according to a spokesperson for the company, for these polls, respondents were first asked if they intended to vote in order to determine their likely voter model, then asked about their candidate preference, before policy issues were raised.
The poll’s sample includes a higher than usual population of voters over the age of 50 that may have tilted the results slightly in Republicans’ favor, though likely not enough to fully account for the wide Democratic deficits. For the poll on the 27th District, 73.79 percent of respondents were aged 50 or older, and, in the gubernatorial race, 67.42 percent fell into that demographic.
(Photo: Flickr Creative Commons/sj_sanders, http://www.flickr.com/photos/sj_sanders)