Despite Republicans winning 55 percent of the statewide vote at the congressional level this year, the GOP still has a 7-6 disadvantage in North Carolina congressional seats, mainly due to the partisan drawing of districts by Democrats.

After taking control of both houses in the General Assembly, Republicans will have control of the redistricting process for the first time in more than a century. The ramifications are likely to be substantial for some North Carolina Democrats in Congress who’ve been helped by district lines drawn by their party.

“There is definitely going to be some pick-ups, folks like Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler are going to have a big bullseyes painted on their backs in terms of the redrawing of districts,” says Michael Bitzer, chair of the Department of History and Politics Catawba University.

Bitzer says once the GOP crafts a 12th district acceptable to the Department of Justice that, “a great reshuffling of districts,” is likely to result.

Redistricting in North Carolina has been a contentious process in the past, with multiple lawsuits resulting from the the Voting Rights Act (VRA). While the intent of the law is to ensure that racial minorities have fair representation in Congress, along the way, it sometimes mitigates partisan gerrymandering. In practice, it prevents a bloc of minority voters concentrated in a geographic area from having their voting power diluted or spread across multiple congressional districts.

Section 5 of the VRA means the General Assembly must “pre-clear” their redistricting plans with the U.S. Department of Justice. The two districts in North Carolina subject to section 5 of the VRA are the 12th and 1st Districts; the DOJ will have final say in deciding how these districts will be drawn. David T. Canon, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told NCIN that in order to meet DOJ approval, the 12th District, “would likely need to have somewhere between 45 and 55 percent minority voters.”

Bitzer feels that Shuler is extremely vulnerable due in the 11th District, which already tilts Republican. “If the Republicans wanted to redraw that district as an even more Republican-leaning district what they could do is go up the spine of the Appalachians and reconstitute it with counties that are much more Republican, counties like Mitchell, like Avery,” he said. “Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com did an analysis and in a lot of U.S. House districts people are no longer splitting their tickets, they’re voting in terms if their true party preference. So you get Republicans added into that district then 90 percent of the time their going to vote Republican.”

Larry Ford, chairman of the Republican Party in Rutherford County, told the New York Times that “Heath Shuler is toast,” after the new districts are drawn. Rutherford County lies just outside of the 11th district’s current boundaries.

North Carolina has added nearly 1.5 million people since 2000 mostly in urban areas. The districts will change due to population growth in those areas, outpacing rural parts of the state. Wake County, with a projected 2010 population of 919,000 people, grew 46 percent during the decade; Mecklenberg County’s population stands at 909,000, a 31-percent increase from the year 2000.

The 2nd, 4th, and 13th districts include part of the Triangle, and Bitzer thinks David Price, who represents the 4th district, might be less secure after redistricting.

“The Price seat is 45 percent Democratic and 26 percent Republican, but if you bumped the GOP up to 30 or 32 percent that would have a dramatic impact. That seat could be a pure toss-up,” he said.

Bitzer also feels that Renee Ellmers, who appears likely to narrowly defeat Rep. Bob Etheridge is the 2nd district recount, will get more cushion in terms of Republicans in that district.

Bitzer says a number or variables are still unknown, including whether the state will gain a 14th seat, but he said, “If I had to lay money down I would say the safe bet is eight seats depending on what the DOJ and federal courts come back with regarding the 12th district.”

(Image: iolp.gsa.gov)