While some economists see signs of economic recovery nationally, North Carolinians face a “terrible” job market that shows no signs of improving, says a Chapel Hill consultant who analyzes the state’s labor market trends.

“There have been improvements in the larger overall economy, but from the perspective of the labor market, we’re not seeing much progress,”  said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy.

Quinterno worries that the long duration of high unemployment in the state is threatening to create a large and permanent percentage of people underemployed or without work and no chance of finding it.

Commenting on his year-end analysis of  the state’s labor market, Quinterno said in a press release:

“If the worsening pattern of long-term unemployment is not reversed soon, many individuals will become effectively unemployable due to skills deterioration, stiff competition, and negative stereotyping on the part of employers. At that point, a serious cyclical employment problem will become an intractable structural one.”

A new jobs report released Tuesday by the N.C. Employment Security Commission shows that unemployment rates increased in 99 of North Carolina’s 100 counties in November. The number of people employed across the state dropped by 12,500 from October to November, the largest job loss in the country.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in November was 9.7 percent, down from 10.9 percent a year earlier. But Quinterno said the decline mostly reflects a shrinking labor market as more of the long-term unemployed give up looking for work and cease to be counted as out of work.

“We’ve made a lot of progress against the unemployment rate, but a lot of that is do to our labor force is shrinking rapidly. You’ve got a tremendous amount of idle labor moving to the sidelines,” Quinterno said.

Quinterno faults the government for not making a stronger effort to put more people back to work.

“It’s bad economic policy and a poor way to treat human beings,” he said. “The longer people are out of work, the harder it is for them to get back.”

Meanwhile, the state’s faltering job market may be further set back by the Republican majority in the General Assembly who plan to cut state spending to close a $3.7 billion budget gap. Republican leaders say they will rely solely on cuts and will not raise or extend temporary taxes due to expire this year.

Sen. Phil Berger, the incoming leader of the Senate, told a meeting of business leaders Monday, “We will tighten our belts. There will be no tax increases. There is no expectation of further bailouts. We need to match spending to revenue.”

The Republican approach is expected to result in the layoff of thousands of teachers and other pubic employees and a loss of contracts by vendors who rely on state business.