Arkansas may be about to flip 16 seats blue and break the GOP's supermajority


As voters head into 2018, backlash against Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress is broad and deep. And it is affect races far down-ticket, even in places which overwhelmingly elected Trump.

One such place is Arkansas.

According to a report in the Arkansas Times, a new political model forecasts Democrats are poised to flip as many as 16 seats in the state House of Representatives and break the Republicans' supermajority for the first time in more than a decade.

Such a shift would have dramatic implications if Democrats manage to win the governor’s race this year, which is also up for grabs. But even if the current Republican governor, Asa Hutchinson, manages to win re-election, he could enjoy a lot less power if his party loses its supermajority.

Even in states where Republicans are favored to retain their legislative majorities, their supermajorities are in serious jeopardy. The GOP already lost supermajorities in both chambers of the Georgia last year. And Democrats are similarly angling to break supermajorities in North Carolina this fall, which would have immediate consequences since that state already has a Democratic governor.

The amount of extra power a supermajority versus a regular majority gives the governing party varies from state to state. In general, though, more Democratic lawmakers in red states would not only mean more balanced debate, but it could have substantial consequences for redistricting as the 2020 Census approaches, making it difficult for the GOP to repeat their systematic gerrymanders of congressional and legislative districts, which even many Republican voters now oppose.

The impending bloodbath facing Arkansas Republicans is merely the tip of the iceberg. This year, every level of government nationwide is facing a sea change.