Benchmark Politics forecast: Democrats on track to win control of Senate
Here is our Senate projection with less than three weeks until Election Day: Significant Senate races to watch: ILLINOIS: Probability of Democratic win: 90% — U.S. Representative Tammy Duckworth (D), an Iraq war veteran, is leading against incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Kirk (R), a former congressman, lawyer, and a retired member of the U.S. Naval Reserve. WISCONSIN: […]
Significant Senate races to watch:
ILLINOIS: Probability of Democratic win: 90% — U.S. Representative Tammy Duckworth (D), an Iraq war veteran, is leading against incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Kirk (R), a former congressman, lawyer, and a retired member of the U.S. Naval Reserve.
WISCONSIN: Probability of Democratic win: 87% — Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold (D), a lawyer and advocate for campaign finance reform, is leading against incumbent U.S. Senator Ron Johnson (R), a former manufacturing executive.
INDIANA: Probability of Democratic win: 71% — Former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D), a lawyer who also previously served as Indiana governor, is leading U.S. Representative Todd Young (R), a former U.S. Marine Corps Captain.
NEVADA: Probability of Democratic win: 59% — Catherine Cortez Masto (D), a lawyer and a former Nevada attorney general, is leading against U.S. Representative Joe Heck (R), a physician and U.S. Army Brigadier General.
PENNSYLVANIA: Probability of Democratic win: 54% — In a closely-watched swing state race, Katie McGinty (D), a former state and federal environmental advisor, is edging out incumbent U.S. Senator Pat Toomey (R), a former Wall Street banker.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Probability of Democratic win: 53% — Governor Maggie Hassan (D), a lawyer and former Vice Chair of the Democratic Governors Association, is ahead of incumbent U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R), a lawyer and former attorney general of New Hampshire.
NORTH CAROLINA: Probability of Republican win: 53% — Incumbent U.S. Senator Richard Burr (R), a former sales manager, is locked in a tight race with challenger Deborah K. Ross (D), a lawyer and longtime North Carolina legislator.
MISSOURI: Probability of Republican win: 55% — Incumbent U.S. Senator Roy Blunt (R), a former House Majority Whip, is virtually tied with challenger Jason Kander (D), a military veteran, lawyer, and politician.
FLORIDA: Probability of Republican win: 69% — U.S. Representative Patrick Murphy (D), a Certified Public Account and former construction business executive, faces off against incumbent U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R), a lawyer and former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives.
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