5 House races that show why Trump's campaign is in huge trouble

1943
Advertisement

Trump is losing or tied in congressional districts he carried by double-digit margins in 2016.

National polling was already looking grim for Donald Trump's reelection chances.

Now, a deeper dive into the numbers in House seats Trump easily carried in 2016 shows an even more troubling picture for his hopes at winning, with polling showing him behind Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden in a smattering of congressional districts Trump carried by double-digit margins just four years ago.

District-level polling was the first place that showed warning signs for Hillary Clinton back in 2016, with elections experts saying at the time that polls in House seats in the Midwest and elsewhere showed erosion among working-class white voters, which ultimately helped push Trump to a narrow Electoral College victory.

Advertisement

"District-level polling at this point in '16 showed flashing red warning signs for Clinton in areas with large white working-class populations — but much of it went ignored," Dave Wasserman, a House race analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted.

Four years later, Wasserman said the district-level polls show the opposite, with support for Trump falling all across the map.

"There was a time when it was easy to imagine this race going much differently," Wasserman said on Sunday. "Eight days out, it's much, much harder. I've seen...almost enough."

Trump's sliding support in seats he easily carried in 2016 is happening all across the country.

A poll released Monday from Texas' 3rd District — a Plano-based seat Trump carried by 14 points in 2016 — found Biden leading by a whopping 11 points, the Texas Tribune reported.

Another poll from over the weekend found Biden leading Trump by 11 points in Michigan's 3rd District, a Grand Rapids-based seat that Trump carried by 9 points just four years ago. That shift comes as polling shows Trump losing Michigan — a critical swing state he won in 2016 — by 8 points, according to a FiveThirtyEight average.

In Colorado's 3rd District, a sprawling seat that encompasses the entire western third of the state that Trump won by 12 points in 2016, Trump is now in a statistical dead heat with Biden, according to an internal Democratic poll released Monday. The survey showed Trump leading Biden by just 1 point, 46% to 45%.

A survey from California's 4th District from late October — a rural seat located in the central portion of the state — also shows Trump in another statistical dead heat, 47% to 46%, even though Trump won there by 15 points in 2016.

And in Arizona's 6th District, a seat Trump carried by 10 points in 2016, he now leads Biden by a slim 1 point margin, according to a poll from OH Predictive Insights released earlier this month.

All of this district-level polling backs up data from September, which showed Trump getting crushed in suburban House seats he had carried the first time he was on the ballot four years ago.

"The GOP polls on the district level have Trump doing 5 points worse than his 2016 baseline over the last few months... We're talking the released ones, which are traditionally biased," CNN polling analyst Harry Enten tweeted.

"It's a dead giveaway that the GOP internal polling has Trump getting beat 'big league.'"

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.