Arizona Sen. Martha McSally trails Democratic opponent in 10th straight poll


The last time McSally held a lead was in May 2019.

Republican Sen. Martha McSally has trailed her reelection opponent, Democrat Mark Kelly, for months.

On Tuesday, a poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights showed her losing to Kelly by 13 points, 51% to 38% — the 10th consecutive statewide poll showing Kelly, a former astronaut and Navy captain, in the lead.

According to Real Clear Politics, of those 10 polls, three were released in 2019, and the remaining seven were released in 2020.

The last time McSally held a lead was a year ago, in May 2019.

"McSally is doing terribly," Mike Noble, an OH Predictive Insights pollster, told the Arizona Republic on Monday. "There's no way to find a bright spot on that one."

Even before the latest poll was released, some Republicans were already writing off McSally's chances of winning in November's election.

"There's no love for her," a GOP consultant told McClatchy on Monday, adding that Republicans and Democrats were planning to spend tens of millions of dollars each on the race, "and she's going to lose."

Arizona is a key battleground state in 2020 that will help determine which party controls the Senate next year. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 seat majority, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats to regain control. Democrats could also regain control if they flip three seats and former Vice President Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump.

In addition to Arizona, Democrats are targeting Republican-held seats in Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, Montana, and Texas.

Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping to gain seats in Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won a special election in 2017, and Michigan, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Gary Peters could face a tight race.

McSally lost her 2018 Senate race to Democrat Krysten Sinema by 2.5 points, or about 55,000 votes. Sinema became the first Democratic senator from Arizona in more than 30 years.

McSally was later appointed by the state's Republican governor to fill out the remainder of the late Sen. John McCain's term, after former Sen. Jon Kyl, previously appointed to McCain's seat, resigned in December that year.

In addition to trailing in polls, McSally failed to keep up with Kelly's fundraising numbers.

In the first three months of 2020 alone, Kelly raised $11 million, almost twice as much as McSally, who raised $6.3 million.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.