Top election forecaster: Democrats' chances of winning House majority 'very real'


Speaker Paul Ryan and his fellow Republicans have pushed for such an unpopular agenda in Congress that it's increasingly likely they're going to lose the House next year.

Speaker Paul Ryan and his fellow Republicans in Congress have spent the last year infuriating the American people with plots to take away their health care, the latest of which is not-so-subtly tucked into their corporate tax scam for billionaires.

Their refusal to act as any sort of check on Donald Trump’s excesses, or corrupt ties to Russia, is not helping matters either.

And according to a forecast from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, the chances of a Democratic wave defeating Ryan’s majority in the House of Representatives is now even odds.

The Center for Politics notes several factors indicating trouble for House Republicans, including Trump’s dismal approval ratings, generic ballot polls, Democrats’ superior recruitment, retiring GOP incumbents, and blowout victories for Democrats in Virginia, New Jersey, and special elections across the country.

The upshot, according to the Center for Politics, is the following:

Put it all together, and the battle for control of the House looks something like a coin flip, with Democrats having a very real chance to net the 24 seats they need to win a majority.

The Center for Politics notes there are a few reasons Democrats are not outright favored to win. For one thing, the economy is still doing well — but that could change if the tax scam goes through. For another, Republicans have used gerrymandering to rig several of the races — but Democrats have mounted several legal challenges to these schemes.

The broad picture is that Republicans are running scared. They are trying to ram through extremist legislation not because they are confident, but because they fear it will be their only chance before a blue wave. It is up to Democrats to make it so.