Youth vote could smash records in 2020 — and crush Trump's reelection chances

Young voters are set to smash records in next week’s election, as they turn out in historic numbers. They have already broken the record set in 2008, when former President Barack Obama was first on the ballot, according to a poll of young voters from Harvard University’s Institute of Politics that was released on Monday.

The poll, which surveyed voters ages 18 to 29, found 63% of respondents saying they will “definitely be voting” in the 2020 election.

That’s far higher than the 47% who said the same in Harvard’s poll of young voters from 2016. And, if it holds, that would likely blow past turnout from 2008, when 48.4% of voters ages 18 to 29 turned out, according to data from the United States Elections Project.

High youth turnout would be a boon to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, as voters in this age demographic back his bid over Donald Trump by a wide margin.

The Harvard University poll found Biden winning likely voters in this age demographic 63% to 25%. That marks an increase since Harvard University last polled youth voters in April and found Biden leading Trump 60% to 30% among likely voters.

If that holds, that would be higher than Hillary Clinton’s margin over Trump among the age demographic. Clinton carried voters ages 18 to 29 by a margin of 55% to 36%, according to exit poll data.

Already, data shows a massive surge in early voting by young voters — including in swing states that could decide the outcome of the election, such as Florida, North Carolina, and Texas, according to a report from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.

In Florida, for example, more than 44,000 people ages 18 to 29 had voted as of Oct. 21, 2016. By the same date in 2020, more than 257,000 voters in that demographic had cast ballots.

“Young Americans recognize that the issues that impact their day-to-day lives are on the ballot, from health care and mental health to racial and social justice. The unprecedented interest in this election and the significant increase in early and mail-in ballots portend historic turnout,” Mark Gearan, the director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School, said in a news release with the poll data. “As this generation becomes the largest voting bloc in the electorate, their notable civic participation is a very good sign for the future.”

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.